Do The Cardinals Have a Chance Without Chris Carpenter?

The Cardinals are short on pitching.  They have not been at full strength all season thanks to the mysterious nerve issues that have plagued Carpenter’s Shoulder since spring training.  This shortage only got worse when Jaime Garcia went down.  It could be a very rough stretch run for this Cardinals team that is in desperate need for innings.  When you factor in the market for starting pitching will be considerably thinner this season than past seasons, the Cardinals could be stuck with the likes of Joe Kelly and Brandon Dickson to fill out their starting rotation.

The Cardinals hopes were tied heavily to the return of these two starters from the disabled list.  In addition to Joe Kelly as the rotation’s weakest link, the Cardinals will need even more out of two pitchers who will be throwing more innings than they probably should be.  Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn will be well ahead of any innings limits that had been projected for them if they remain in the rotation for the entire year, and that is if they do not make it into the playoffs.  Considering that the Cardinals have a bullpen with only about 2 consistently reliable arms, these innings that are not covered by starting pitchers have to go somewhere.  The unfortunate reality of the situation is that whatever innings that Chris Carpenter does not cover because he can’t pitch fall to someone with half his ability.

The obvious answer to this issue if both Carpenter and Garcia are truly gone for good is to make a trade.  The Cardinals have the top organization from top to bottom in baseball according to Baseball America as of this last offseason, and many of these players are prospects who are either blocked by current major leaguers or are seen only as placeholders until more promising prospects come in the next few years.  The perfect example of this is Zack Cox, the Cardinal’s 1^st round draft pick in 2010, and up until this year where he has hit a snag, he has done nothing but hit in the minor leagues.  Could another team look past his recent struggles and have interest in the Cardinal’s 5^th best prospect according to fangraphs.com enough to give the Cardinals the type of innings eating starter that they need?  Another talented young player that the Cardinals could look to move in a deal for a starting pitcher could be on their current roster.  We have heard for years now about the toolsy potential of Tyler Greene, and while we have seen flashes, maybe it is time to give someone else a chance to see if they can get more out of the now 28 year old utility infielder who can be a decent major league shortstop.

As far as who should the Cardinals target, that is where this trade scenario gets muddy.  The teams with the most obvious targets are national league central teams.  The Astros could be looking to deal some combination of Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers who are both veteran players who could solidify the Cardinals bullpen and rotation at one time, but what would it cost to get these two pitchers?  It also makes me a little uneasy to attempt to make a trade with a general manager Jeff Luhnow who was integral in the drafting of many of the players in the Cardinal’s system.  This is not the guy who you are going to get away with anything in a deal.  Another team who the Cardinals could find as trade partners, the Cubs for Dempster maybe although he is due off the disabled list soon or maybe Matt Garza.  What about the Brewers?  Could they look past last year’s duels between the Cardinals and volatile outfielder Nyjer Morgan, or be willing to make a trade so that it can watch the Cardinals once again climb over the National League Central Division deep into the playoffs with another late season run that has to be demoralizing for the other teams in the division.  Zack Greinke or Shaun Marcum could be the perfect pitcher for the Cardinals who could not only eat innings, but be a force if the team made it into the postseason.

The options are out there for the Cardinals, and John Mozeliak has not been shy about trading highly touted prospects (see Brett Wallace for Matt Holliday), established and pretty integral parts of the major league roster (Ryan Ludwick for Jake Westbrook), or even current major leaguers who are also looked at as the future of the franchise (last season’s blockbuster deal of Colby Rasmus).  It should be interesting to see what the Cardinals come up with.  They have multiple surpluses, especially in the midlevel prospect ranks and should be dealing from a position of strength.  Now that Chris Carpenter will not be expected back until next year, it is time to gauge the market, and make a push for the postseason.  Maybe this team has some more magic left in it.