What Will Jaime Garcia Be In Three Years?

As was evidenced by his stellar performance against the Giants, Jaime Garcia is a talented, young pitcher.  He has been celebrated by his teammates as having the best stuff on a starting staff with a former Cy Young Award winner, a runner up for the award, and a couple veteran pitchers with nearly 100 wins on the back of their baseball cards.  At the age of 25, he is still young with a very bright future, but how bright is that future really?  To watch Jaime Garcia pitch, with the ball he throws darting in all different directions, is to watch something of absolute beauty or something of tragic inconsistency.  We all hope and even expect that as a young man only a month or so shy of his 26^th birthday, he will be able to be less frustration and more exciting talent, but then again, he would not be the first young pitcher not to live up to his potential.

Cliff Lee was another talented young left hander with tons a world of potential.  He made his major league debut at the age of 23, similarly to Garcia who made his debut at 21, did not have a full season until he was 23 after taking a year off due to Tommy John ligament replacement surgery.  Cliff Lee, also much like Garcia began his career with exciting promise, going 18 and 5 as a 26 year old pitcher who seemed to be the next great lefty.  After that exciting year, his career took a turn that saw his ERA balloon to 6.29 as a 28 year old.  This career hiccup only led him on to bigger and better things, however, as the next season saw him end as the Cy Young Award winner.  To top everything off, he has made playoff runs with multiple teams and proven himself to be one of the game’s best clutch performers and most exciting talents.

Jaime Garcia still has a long ways to go before he gets to this sort of level, but the talent is there to have similar successes.  The biggest difference between Jaime Garcia and some of the other top left handed pitchers in baseball right now is his inconsistency.  We all have seen Garcia shut down the opposition when he has his best stuff and the breaks are going his way.  The only problem here is that it is impossible for anyone not named Justin Verlander to have dominating stuff night in and night out.  Garcia needs to learn some of the lessons that Chris Carpenter has been trying to exemplify for the past year. 

Whether it be age, injury, or just bad luck, Carpenter last year was handed the ball multiple times when he did not appear to have his best stuff.  Taking one look at the exasperated looks on his face during games where he would give up a few hits told me all I needed to know about how he was feeling that day.  The thing about Carpenter is that his competitiveness would not allow him to lose his focus.  Whether it be by screaming obscenities at other players or growling at the players on his own team when unfortunate young shortstops dared to interrupt his tempo (Brendan Ryan), Carpenter always seems to find a way to keep the Cardinals in the game long enough to have a chance on the days that he was working with less than his best.

Garcia still needs to learn this lesson, although it is far from an easy lesson for anyone to learn.  If Garcia could calm himself and not let one error compound into many bad pitches that end up in multiple run innings, he truly could be a leader of the Cardinal’s staff for years to come.  If he does not continue to develop, he will still be the talented middle of the rotation starter that he has been for the past few years.  In no way is this a knock on Garcia, as for the past three years now, he has been amazing in that role.  Back to back 13 win seasons in the major leagues is nothing to devalue, but with the injury/impending end of Chris Carpenter’s career in the next year or two and the possibility of losing a rehabbed Adam Wainwright to free agency a possibility, the Cardinals may be looking to Garcia as more than just a talented middle of the rotation pitcher with the upside to be more.