Is the Cardinals Bullpen Good Enough to Win the National League Central?

In 2011, the Cardinals slugged their way to a World Series.  They held the highest batting average in the National League by 9 points over the second place Mets, and yet with all this offense, they needed a historic run and even more improbably collapse by Atlanta to even take part in the playoffs.  It is not difficult to come up with reasons as to why they were put in this kind of position with that much offensive firepower.  The answer lies with their pitching and defense.  Although the starting rotation had to move on without Wainwright, the starters performed admirably.  The starting staff had a record that was exactly 20 games over .500 with the 8^th best ERA in the National League.

The Cardinal’s bullpen last season was a different story.  For the season they were 11th in the National League in ERA and saved only 47 of 73 opportunities on the season.  These numbers also take into account the Cardinal’s bullpen after they had settled with Motte as the team’s closer and made the trade for Dotel to stabilize the late innings and pressure situations.  It was at times an extremely frustrating season for the Cardinals because of this lack of success in finishing games.  But then there was the postseason, and much of the regular season lack of success was forgotten.  The bullpen was credited with 6 of the 11 wins that the Cardinals had to put together to win the World Series, and both Dotel and Lynn had 2 wins a piece.  Fernando Salas showed that he could be a valuable pitcher in difficult situations in the middle innings as he stopped the bleeding over and over again.  Motte was 5 for 5 in save opportunities and slammed the door emphatically in most of them with his dominating fastball.

This season, the Cardinal’s bullpen is .46 runs worse in ERA than last season, and although it is in a smaller sample size, the team has successfully saved 8 out of 16 save opportunities for an even worse save percentage from 2011.  At this rate, the Cardinals are in for another rocky and frustrating season unless the pen can come together similar to how it did in the playoffs last season after the additions of Dotel and Rzepcynski.  The Cardinals need a return to form of Fernando Salas who has simply not been the same this season after his heavy use during the playoffs.  They are also in need of another guy who can get left handed pitchers out. 

The biggest need in this bullpen though is another dependable arm that can slam the door in the 7^th and 8^th innings before handing the ball over to Motte to close out the game.  These innings seem to be the most challenging to fill every season, but this season seems to be a particular riddle.  Although Boggs has been a bright spot so far, he has been anything but consistent so far in his short career.  While watching last season with friends, I would joke that we could tell whether Boggs would make it out of the inning by watching how he pitched to the first two batters.  It always seemed that he would either come in throwing darting sliders and sinkers that disappeared.  Unfortunately he was just as likely to come in throwing fastballs either right down the middle of the plate or well off the corners. 

While speaking of pitchers with electric stuff that have just not put it together yet it is impossible not to think of Eduardo Sanchez.  His electric fastball and slider remind me of Carlow Marmol of the Chicago Cubs when he was the successful closer who struck out batters at a record pace.  Unfortunately, his lack of control also warrants this comparison.  I was able to see him pitch in person against the Phillies when he threw 2 scoreless innings, and even here in his best outing of the season, it seemed like he knew no more about where the pitch was going to end up than I did from the stands.

The arm that they really need in that late inning role is also their best starting pitcher right now.  Lance Lynn was extremely valuable out of the bullpen last season, but how can you justify taking him out of the rotation over someone like Westbrook who after an exciting beginning of the season has come back to Earth with his recent outings?  The return of Chris Carpenter will allow the move of Lynn which will really make things interesting as far as what the Cardinals decide to do. 

On top of everything else, there is Jason Motte at the end of the game.  All things considered, he has had a lot of success this season, but with his lack of an effective secondary pitch, it is difficult not to worry about him when he comes out to the mound and is not throwing 99 miles per hour on every pitch.  With few other weapons other than his fastball, it is a difficult matchup for Motte against a hitter who can catch up with his velocity, and I am afraid that he will have some stretches this season where he struggles.  It could be a very interesting season for these Cardinals, and the bullpen will surely be an enormous reason for why they either make the playoffs or find themselves wondering what went wrong.