If I were
to draw up how this series should go for the Cardinals to win the World Series,
I would say that they needed to win one game in San Francisco, two in St.
Louis, and then finish the series off on the road again in San Francisco. The Cardinals have followed this script
almost to perfection, and in doing that they have beaten the likes of Madison
Bungarner and Matt Cain already to get to their three wins. The problem is that guys like Barry Zito have
given this Cardinal line-up fits, and pitchers like Lance Lynn have looked
completely unhittable for three innings before completely falling apart.
Before
the 5th game of the series in St. Louis, feelings of excitement
could not have been any higher. This
team was on a roll, and the Giants were sending a pitcher to the mound that had
been beaten up by the Cardinals in the past and had been a pretty substantial
disappointment ever since signing an enormous contract to go play in San
Francisco. The Cardinals were at home
and ready to end the series there, but that was simply not to be.
For a
team that is only one win away from the World Series and an offense that has
put up some big games in the postseason, this team is about as frustrating as
could be imagined. When I talk to my non
Cardinal fan friends, they all roll their eyes when I act this frustrated about
a team that is one win away from back to back World Series berths, but I do not
think that there is a Cardinals fan out there who would not at least on some
level agree with my frustrations. For
one, they came out flat in Game 5… How in the hell is a team one win away from
the World Series and considered to be a veteran team with postseason experience
give away a game like that when they know that they will now have to win the
final game of the series on the road?
Barry
Zito was not throwing above mid-80’s all game.
I am not saying that this makes him easy to hit. I am not going to suggest that velocity means
that much. There have been plenty of
soft tossing left handed pitchers who have had a lot of success, but those
pitchers usually flip in a bunch of curveballs and changeups to get outs, Barry
Zito seemed to strike out Cardinal hitters with high fastballs, and at 85 miles
per hour, there is no excuse to be late on the pitch. In the first couple innings, the Cardinals
seemed to be only moments away from exploding for a bunch of runs. They had runners on second and third with no
outs in the inning and were unable to come through with any runs. This is almost difficult to do against a pitcher
who struck out only 5 and a half batters per 9 innings this season. That is Jake Westbrook territory, a guy who
is definitely better known for getting ground ball outs than getting big
strikeouts. Of course Zito was able to
throw a high fastball by Descalso and escape with a double play ball. The rest is history.
I suppose
we should not be too surprised by this Cardinal team. It is not because they lack the talent or
ability to put this team away, and it is not because they will somehow be unable
to close out the series. We have seen
this team successfully close out 4 series in a row at this point in the
postseason, so with a one game lead and Carpenter on the mound, I still have
faith. The reason that we should not be
surprised that the Cardinals did not finish this series at home in Game 5 is
because that just isn’t how they do things.
This team is like Felix Baumgartner, the guy who jumped from space and
broke the speed of sound. What does he do
next to get that same adrenaline high?
After being down to a final strike in an elimination game in the World
Series twice, winning a Game 5 in St. Louis just does not seem to get their
heart pumping enough to qualify it as enough of a high. They need to get a little adversity built up
and have a few people count them out before they can win the game in dramatic
fashion. This is why watching this team
is so frustrating; it is like we are just waiting for their parachute to fail
because we know that the law of averages says that at some point, it has to.
The
Cardinals will be going back to San Francisco with the goal of winning only one
out of two games there, but this goal may seem a little too simplified for this
team. They are going to need to win Game
6 or face Matt Cain in Game 7 on the road with all the momentum having shifted
over to the Giants. I would say that
this would be too much even for this Cardinals team, but I would have said just
about the same thing for the Cardinals when they faced the Nationals in the
NLDS. I guess, I am hoping for a series
clinching win tonight more to ease my nerves and indigestion than because I do
not think they can win in Game 7. I just
hope I do not have to watch another game while waiting for the parachute to not
open.
And now
that we know we are hoping for a rematch of the 2006 World Series, we also know
that it could be possible that the Cardinals are fighting just to be able to
lose to Justin Verlander three times in the World Series. I do have one suggestion for this team going
forward though. There has been talk
about Lance Lynn being removed from the Cardinals rotation if they made it to
the World Series, and the logical choice would be to bring back Jake Westbrook
to pitch if his oblique muscle strain has improved. My thought is a little more unorthodox, but
it could work perfectly for a home game against the Tigers if they were to get
that far.
My
suggestion is to start Lance Lynn just like normal. Let him go his three innings if he is able to
get that far, but have Joe Kelly ready at a moment’s notice. The goal would be to keep Lynn in the game
long enough to bat once if the Cardinals are able to get a few hits early in
the game, but if he would not bat until the third inning, the Cardinals should
pinch hit for him regardless of how well he is throwing. This would essentially make the Cardinal’s
lineup into an American League lineup without the pitcher’s spot while taking
advantage of the depth they have of pitchers who can go multiple innings and
can also be ready in relief.
After
Kelly is brought in, preferably in the 4th inning, the Cardinals
would be all but set up for the rest of the game. If Kelly could throw the 4th and 5th
innings, then they could pinch hit for him when his spot came up before putting
in Rosenthal who would be trusted for two more innings at which point Matheny
could go directly to Mujica, Boggs, and Motte if they were ahead or close. The drawback to this plan is that if the game
were to go into extra innings, they would have burned most of their bullpen,
but the Cardinals still have a starter in the pen in Shelby Miller who could be
counted on to be the long man. Another
drawback to this plan would be the potential loss of Kelly and Rosenthal for
the next game which would make this plan more realistic if it were to take
place either before a travel day or perhaps in the game before Lohse or
Wianwright were to start and could be leaned on to throw 6 or 7 innings without
the backup of the Cardinal’s two starters turned long men in the bullpen.
This is
basically the strategy that La Russa used last season to win the World
Series. He went to the bullpen early and
often to mix and match with hitters in a way that would be most effective, and
it could be argued that this season’s bullpen is even better set up for that
type of usage. The only issue with it is
the complete lack of a left handed reliever with enough ability and credibility
to be leaned on in a late game situation.
I know, I know. I am getting
ahead of myself. As far as the Giant’s series
goes, the Cardinals are still one game away from being able to look at strategy
against the AL champ. I still remember
the 1996 Cardinals who could not put away the Atlanta Braves after taking a 3
games to 1 lead, and I would rather not see the second Cardinal team to do that
during this season. Hopefully, tonight
the Cardinals can do things the non-dramatic way and score some early runs and
hope Carpenter can pitch his way into the 6th inning.
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