Just How Good Could 2012 Be For The Cardinals?

With enthused clichés about spring and the feeling of optimism running through my mind, it is impossible not to be overjoyed by the opining of Spring Training.  When the pitchers and catchers reported to Jupiter, Florida only weeks ago, I found it impossible to not celebrate the highs of last year all over again.  I find myself watching highlights of Game 6 of the World Series in perpetuity and dreaming about the possibilities of reliving similar experiences this season with this version of the Cardinals.  This is not to say that this current version of the Cardinals does not have its flaws.  While so much is the same from last season, even more seems to be different for the 2012 Cardinals.  Like it or not, the World Series win was the close of an era in St. Louis.  This is not to say that the future does not look bright, just different, and different can seem scary for a fan base that has seen a decade and a half of the same coaching staff and a decade spent with the same, ridiculously consistent best player.  With the time rapidly approaching where looking forward is going to be more important than looking back, here are the reasons why the Cardinals will and will not repeat as World Series Champions in 2012.

Why The Cardinals Will Not Repeat.

3.   The back end of the rotation.  It is easy to say that the Cardinals are set as a starting staff.  They have the same five starters this year that they walked into last season hoping they would have.  While the reinfusion of Adam Wainwright into the rotation brings with it exciting possibilities, the concept of running Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook to the mound on back to back nights does not inspire all kinds of confidence.  While both are experienced and capable major league starters, Westbrook had an ERA over 4.50 last year despite a winning record.  Lohse on the other hand, had an impressively productive season in 2012, but watching him in the postseason was to see a pitcher who could fool a lineup the first time through the order before watching his elusive change-up become very hittable.  With the possibility of Carpenter and Wainwright not being able to throw as many innings this season as previous seasons, relying on the back end of the rotation could potentially spell danger for the 2012 Cardinals.

2.   The loss of the best hitter in baseball over the past 11 years.  It is impossible to look at a lineup without Albert Pujols and compare it favorably to a lineup that does not have a machine wearing the number 5 batting in the third spot of the batting order.  Albert Pujols almost single handedly won the third game of the World Series, and in a series that went to a seventh game, every game held a heightened sense of importance.  For the past 11 seasons, the Cardinals have always had the best player on the field, and now they will have to get by with having multiple good players, but that trump card will no longer belong to the team from St. Louis.

1.   Injuries.  It is not any spectacular revelation to say that the threat of injuries could bring down a professional sports team.  The last time the Cardinals were defending World Series Champs, multiple elbow surgeries for their ace Chris Carpenter spelled doom for the team from opening day, and the possibility for injuries to be the biggest challenge to the 2012 Cardinals is a very real threat.  While it is possible to say that any team could have injuries, the Cardinals seem to have a roster that is filled with players who have extensive histories of not remaining healthy through a full season.  The just mentioned Carpenter is coming off of a season in which he threw more innings than ever before in his career, Wainwright as well is only a year removed from ligament replacement surgery in his elbow, and then the batters add to the long list of players with injury histories.  Lance Berkman and Carlos Beltran, although both had productive years last year, carry with him the risk of a mid-30’s players with extensive knee issues in the past.  Similar things could be said for David Freese and Allen Craig, both young players who have a ton of talent, but seem to be unable to remain healthy enough to show this talent over the course of an entire season.  Add to this a 34 year old shortstop with declining batting numbers resulting from his injuries in the past years and the potential for a nightmare of an injury riddled season is definitely a frightening one.

Why The Cardinals Will Win It All Again

3.   The Bullpen.  While the Cardinals are still leaning heavily on young arms in the bullpen, the potential for improvement in this phase of the team became evident as the season went along last year.  The group of young Cardinals relievers and older relievers blew 26 saves last season for the Cardinals.  To put this number in perspective, the season before the Cardinals had only 10 blown saves.  If the Cardinals in 2011 had only had this number of blown saves, they would have set a team record for wins in a season, which would be a far cry from needing a 23-9 record over the final 32 games in order to sneak into the playoffs.  An improved bullpen in 2012 could be the perfect remedy for a Cardinals team that was slowed by injuries or a decline in offensive production.

2.   Adam Wainwright.  The fact that the Cardinals made it to the playoffs without their ace last season was completely improbable.  Having the 6 foot 7 workhorse back should be the greatest improvement for the team this season.  Although there has already been talk of Wainwright’s innings being limited, there is real reason to hope that these innings, although not the quantity as he produced during his past, the quality will surely make up for it.

1.   A deep and balanced lineup.  The Cardinals won the World Series last year for two reasons above all else.  They had a bullpen that could match up batter by batter and get consistent outs, and they had a lineup that could put up enough runs to make up for the shortcomings of whichever starting pitcher struggled to give the team more than a few innings.  Although he enhanced the lineup greatly and came up big more than once, Albert Pujols was not the reason the Cardinals won their 11^th title.  While having one batter who everyone fears is an amazing luxury, having a lineup with hitters the quality of Molina, Craig, and Freese batting in the 5^th, 6^th, and 7^th spots in the order is devastating.  Assuming health, the Cardinals could have legitimate threats to drive in runs scattered throughout the order in a way that should mean a lot of runs.

How Good Are These Blues?

As a child growing up a fan of the city of St. Louis, there were really only two teams that I could watch on TV with any consistency living in western Illinois.  The only real television channel we received that ran any St. Louis sports was Fox Sports Midwest other than the occasional national broadcasting.  This meant that year round, on a daily basis, my father and I would sit down to watch either a Cardinal’s or Blues’ game.  My most crucial years of maturation as a fan saw teams lead by Al MacInnis and Chris Pronger dominate as the top duo of defensemen in the game.  I remember the days when Brett Hull, Geoff Courtnall, Pierre Turgeon, and even for a brief period Wayne Gretzky scored goals for the Blues.  I remember these as magical days for the Blues organization even though they never seemed to be able to win the big game to push themselves to the Stanley Cup Finals. 

And then the devastating combination of a lockout in 2004-2005 and a team that was only capable of making the briefest of playoff cameos in 2008-2009 as the only playoff experienced since that time caused me and I am sure many others to doubt any worthwhile value in watching the Blues or the NHL in general.  Last year I told myself would be the year that I kicked my fanaticism for the Blues back up to the days when I would live and die with playoff series in which I always seemed to find myself hating the Redwings as if they were the scum of the Earth.  I purchased a throwback Al MacInnis jersey online and made my way to multiple games at the Scottrade Center.  I was full of hope when they got off to a hot start, but these hopes were quickly dashed as injuries decimated the team, relegating them to the lowly position of 11^th place in the Western Conference.

Why this brief and not particularly insightful history lesson?  Well the truth is that I am not sure if the current incarnation of St. Louis Hockey is closer to the magical although cup-less teams of my youth or the more current and disappointing rebuilding years.  The truth is most likely somewhere in between, but after watching a half of an NHL season, I would be foolish to not at least speak of this team in hopeful terms.  This season’s run of success has earned them at least that.  After Saturday, February 18, the Blues have the second most points in the Western Conference and are fresh off of back to back wins by 4 goals.  Although it is difficult to get too excited after mustering only 1 goal against Columbus, a team that has allowed more goals than anyone else in the NHL.  If anything this inconsistency shows a possible lack of maturity, but then again, after years of losing, I am more than willing to look forward to a little excitement even if it is flawed at times.

The identity of this team over the first half of the season was a defensive one, all the more reason to be optimistic about the past two games’ scoring explosions.  The Blues had not scored 9 goals in back to back games at any point in time this season. There has been one obvious Achilles heel for the Blues this season, and it has been their ability to score goals.  Although they seem set with the current roster and have no desire to trade for offensive pieces, the possible return of Alexander Steen could provide the stretch run push that they need, provided he can shed the concussion symptoms he is still feeling.  If they could somehow combine that with the NHL’s defense with the fewest goals allowed on the season, there is reason to hope for a potential return to playoff relevancy, something that has not been fully experienced in St. Louis since…well, possibly ever.  It may still take some time before this Blues version creates memories like I remember growing up, but at least they seem to be moving in the right direction after 7 years of being lost.

The Struggles of the 250 Pound Marathon Runner

I have hit the wall, and that wall, although figurative, seems to be made of granite.  I only say that because at 6 foot 8 inches and 250 pounds, I feel like I should be able to run through your average slabs of dry wall.  Attempting to learn from the mistakes of last year, I decided to run even more this year.  I wanted to help myself believe that I could make it 26.2 miles and that I deserved to make it that far.  Unfortunately, the only thing that I seemed to retain from last year’s failure was the knowledge that, well, failure is a possibility. 

I went out to attempt a long run last Sunday.  I was really going to take my mileage up, but then again it was not supposed to be too enormous of a jump.  I was adding 2 miles to the longest run I had made before this, but after running through Forest Park just long enough to hit my first couple hills, any resolve to continue my run was taken from me.  There is so many enemies of a person training for a marathon, and on this failed attempt at a run, I seemed to hit them all.  If anyone has an idea of how to get past these adversaries to all people who enjoy running, I would love to hear the suggestions.

The first barrier to my running was the hill.  It seems so harmless, peaceful really.  To describe the idea of a hill to a child would be the simplest concept I could come up with.  How can the slanting of a road be so threatening?  Why is it that with every step up the incline I take, my heart sinks that much lower?  The worst thing about a hill is not the feeling of knotting of the muscles in my legs, but instead, I am convinced that the worst thing is seeing that hill on the horizon and knowing that after that hill will be others just like it, waiting to destroy my chances at continuing my run.

The next barrier I seemed to hit on my run was the wind.  While I could drop a few pounds with all my running, I will never be immune to the wind.  With a body that stands more than six and a half feet in the air and shoulders that are wide enough to seem to catch all the wind that wants to blow.  I swear that if you wanted to create a sail to catch as much wind, my dimensions would be perfect.  I used to believe that I had a small advantage with my long if not even remotely athletic or strong legs could be considered advantageous due to the length of a stride that is possible, but little did I know that the size of my body would cause the most difficulty because it would catch the most wind.

All of these other barriers are difficult, but the one difficulty that I would have never thought of is the concept of boredom.  Who knew that running could be that boring?  Somehow I thought about the idea of pushing my body to the edges of sanity and beyond would be exciting and interesting, and yet I am sad to say that the only thing that happens when my personal odometer turns over to the next mile is continue to count forward to the next mile.  The first thing I wanted to do to overcome the boredom was to listen to music, but there are really only so many times you can hear the same playlist before it becomes some odd form of torture.

I am still looking for the mysterious solutions to these issues and others.  I decided to leave out the issues of running while my nipples bleed or what to do when it is 30 degrees outside and a full bladder is threatening to empty with every step.  If there is anyone out there who has an idea of how to run 26.2 miles and not be bored out of your mind, I would love to hear it.  I was hoping that I could just stop my mind for a while and just run, but unfortunately, I still find a way to see a little piece of Mt. Everest in every hill.

Where Will The Rams Be When They Play in Their Next Super Bowl?

On the Eve of the Super Bowl, I cannot help but look at the victorious Giants and even the losing Patriots with the jealousy of a fan of a team that has been neither a victor nor the defeated in a worthwhile game in years.  Unlike these two teams who always seem to be in a position to contend, the Rams are in a state of flux.  It is difficult to look at this team and feel completely hopeless, but it is also difficult to look at this team and feel like there is much confidence.  After a season in which the Rams finished with the second worst record in football, there has been talk of them leaving St. Louis for greener grass in Los Angeles or even London.  While the second option seems almost unreal and borderline ridiculous, the idea of a return visit to a former home cuts deep into the heart of possibility.

There is also an odd feeling of hope that comes with these Rams.  They have the number 2 draft pick in a draft that has major playmakers available such as Justin Blackmon who could represent a wide receiver with the type of enormous upside that the Rams have lacked since the days of Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce, or running back who has been graded up there with Adrian Peterson and Darren McFadden in Trent Richardson.  Even with a guy like Steven Jackson in place, this is an exciting opportunity for an upgraded offensive plan that could extend into the future.  The Rams could even go in a less sexy but more functional direction and shore up a porous offensive line or injury ravaged defensive secondary.  Or even better yet, the Rams could trade down a couple spots and fill multiple needs with quality players.  The truth is that after picking in the top 2 draft slots for the fourth time in five years, the Rams have talented young players in place who should come into their own at some point in the next few years.  That is, if we can be optimistic enough to dream that the likes of Sam Bradford, Chris Long, and Jason Smith can continue to develop and stay healthy enough to find success.  Add to this infusion of young talent a head coach who has had plenty of success in the NFL, and the future could potentially look bright for this Rams team.

The only problem with this hope for the future for a St. Louis fan is the comparison to a 1953 Boston Braves team in baseball.  It is an odd cross sports comparison, but it is also one that could just fit and painfully for the city of St. Louis.  The Braves in Boston were the second love of a city that was enthralled with the Red Sox although they left right before they were given a chance to rewrite history.  After leaving Boston with the likes of Warren Spahn, Eddie Matthews, Hank Aaron, and other talented although not Hall of Fame caliber players, the Braves found a championship and pennant in Milwaukee within a few years.  The comparison ends here, however.  St. Louis does not have another NFL franchise waiting in the wings to follow and love, but the possibility to see a home town team leave town just in time to find success that could only come about after years of stockpiling draft picks because of terrible teams is one that cannot be ignored.

The city of St. Louis deserves better than this from Kroenke.  This is not to say that he does not have the right to do with his team as he is allowed by his title as owner.  Kroenke is a businessman above all else, and to say that he cannot look for a place where he is able make more profits from his investment is just un-American.  As for the city of St. Louis, its destiny as the jilted lover who watches its team find success in a new market that has never known the tough times just seems unfair.  St. Louis has suffered through the dark times, and now with the threat of daylight on the horizon, the sun could be ripped right out of the sky to shine somewhere else.  I can only hope that someone stops this craziness before it gets to that point.

Why Yadier Molina Needs to be a Cardinal for Life

In the wake of the departure of Albert Pujols after the 2011 World Series championship, the face of the St. Louis Cardinals franchise was changed overnight.  It is time for a new personality to come to the front of the Cardinals and be identified as the new leader of the team.  Fortunately for the franchise, there is not short on options for a new front man, options like the highest paid Cardinal in the history of the franchise in Matt Holiday, the new up and coming although freshly scarred ace in Adam Wainwright, or even the hometown hero in David Freese.  All these are perfectly acceptable options for this newly crowned king of the city, but St. Louis is a town whose identity is and has been dominated by baseball ever since the days of Branch Ricky's Gashouse Gang teams.  It has been blessed with the personalities such as Stan Musial, Bob Bibson, Lou Brock, Ozzie Smith, and Albert Pujols, the types of people that other cities look at and identify as players they only wish they could have on their teams.  These were the kind of players that people would buy tickets to see.  A talented team has always been one secret to gaining revenue for a team, but the idea of an icon playing on the field brings in money as well.

Yadier Molina is not Albert Pujols.  He lacks the grace of Ozzie Smith, the speed of Lou Brock, and the bat of Stan Musial.  His running is painful to watch, and while batting .300 from a catcher's spot is never anything to discredit, the fact that he has hit double digit home runs only once in his career and cannot be counted on for much more than 65 RBI's does not make his bat something that will in itself bring fans to the ballpark.  He plays a position where while even an untrained eye notices the cannon with which he throws out potential base stealers, it takes some baseball intelligence to notice all the other little things that he does to earn the respect of not only those runners on base for another team, but also the pitchers who trust him with their baseball careers.  In St. Louis, the love of baseball has reached the level that a player like Yadier Molina can easily be the face of the franchise even though it would be more difficult to sell tickets on the road to watch Molina catch than it would be to watch Albert Pujols swing a bat.

The day after the Albert Pujols was lured away to California/Los Angeles/Anaheim/who cares it is definitely not St. Louis, I could not shake the thought that there was one logical move for the team to make that would simultaneously instill confidence in a fan base whose panic was only held back by replays of Game 6 of the 2011 World Series and at the same time be an intelligent move for a franchise that has been looking to make smart investments.  This move would be to re-sign Yadier Molina for at least the next 4 years. 

As a catcher whose offensive numbers are not as sexy as the likes of Joe Mauer or Brian McCann, Yadier Molina could be sign a contract for 10 million dollars a year and still be the 3^rd highest paid catcher in baseball based on the 2011 contract numbers after the retirement of Jorge Posada.  Although this would represent an extremely large investment for the Cardinals into a player who plays fewer games than any other regular position player, there are so many reasons why Molina would be worth the money.  First of all, Molina has a direct effect on 5 games a week.  At 10 million dollars a year, Molina would be making less money than Kyle Lohse.  While Lohse was able to have a career renaissance last year, there is no way that his 30 starts in a season are worth more than Molina’s 130 games in a season.  For the Cardinals to be willing to pay more than 10 million dollars a year for Lohse and not be willing to make a similar contract offer to Molina is negligent at best.

Molina is a player whose numbers will never tell the full story of his value.  His number of hits will never be inflated as he will never be the type of guy to get a cheap hit or two on an infield single.  His power numbers have and probably will never be eye-popping, and even his number of runners thrown out have decreased in recent years due to a giant red light that seems to be flashing at second base for whatever runners are bold enough to even look for a chance to steal.  To fully understand the greatness of Molina, you have to have been a Cardinals fan or at least watched the man play for the past 8 seasons.  It is impressive to see the body language of those pitchers who are talking to Molina or standing on a mound just over 60 feet away from Molina’s awaiting glove.  There is not a member of the Cardinal’s staff that does not seem to have the utmost confidence in the man.  He is a catcher and a leader who has come up big again and again in pressure filled situations, whether it was hitting the homerun to send the Cardinals to the World Series in 2006 or throwing out Ian Kinsler 3 times in the 2011 World Series.

The next argument that can simply not be ignored is that if the Cardinals do not re-sign Molina, they have no one in place that could come close to filling his shoes.  For the first time since 2004, the Cardinals are going with youth at the backup catcher spot, and while the Cardinals do have a few talented backstops, neither Cruz or Anderson can be a serious contender to take over for Molina whether that be his production at the plate or his amazing ability to change a game from behind the plate.  The top free agent catcher names out there that could be available after 2012 season would be Miguel Montero and Mike Napoli, but either of these more offensive players could command a similar contract to Molina with a drastic step down in defense.  The simple truth is that there is one best option for the St. Louis Cardinals to play catcher in 2013 and beyond, and he is the player that they already have on their roster and have exclusive negotiating rights with from now until the end of the 2012 season.  Do not wait for another Pujol’s like negotiation after the season is over, Cardinal’s front office.  Get a deal done now.