What Would it Mean if the Cardinals Get to a Wild Card Game?

Ok, I know I am speaking way too soon.  I have knocked on every piece of wood, kissed every lucky egg (Cool Runnings anyone), and been on a nonstop search for lucky pennies, horseshoes, and four leaf clovers all day so I feel like I can ask this question.  The Cardinals as of August 22^nd  are officially tied for a spot in a National League Wild Card Spot, and now seems to be the time when we can look forward with our fingers crossed and try to figure out what that means.  Ok, enough with the lucky gestures (although I just put on the pair of boxers that I wore for the entire September and October run for the Cardinals last year).  Too far?  Sorry.

The first thing we would need to look at for this scenario, the first of its kind in baseball, is what kind of matchup the Cardinals would have in that single game play off.  As it stands right now, and there is fairly good reason to believe that it would hold true after the Braves fell apart last season down the stretch, the Cardinals would face the Atlanta Braves, and this is most likely a rough matchup for the Cards.  This season, the Cardinals are 1-5 against the Atlanta Braves after being swept at home early in the season. 

While it is impossible to project how the rotations of either team would shape up, when looking at the Braves rotation which currently has 6 pitchers in it, the rotation seems to mirror the Cardinals in many ways.  The rotation is led by Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson who both have 12 wins and both have had injury issues this season.  Other options for this game could be one of the two recent additions to the Braves team in Ben Sheets and Paul Maholm who have both been extremely impressive since being added to the Atlanta Team.  In comparison with the Cardinals rotation which could boast a top three of Wainwright, Lohse, and Garcia if he could come back to his prior levels of performance and with the capable and at times outstanding Lynn, the Cardinals’ rotation could match up with the Braves’ rotation pretty well, especially if Wainwright can be the type of big game pitcher who can put a team on his back like back when he was pitching in the playoffs against the Dodgers in 2009.

Then we look at the differences between the two offenses, and that is where the Cardinals would need to separate themselves from the Braves.  The Cardinals are the best offensive team in the National League, having scored 28 more runs than the Atlanta Braves and are hitting .020 points higher than the Braves.  This is an advantage that would need to make the difference in this potential match up. 

The huge issue that separates these two teams, however, is the differences in the bullpen.  The Braves bullpen is more than a run better this season in ERA, and the Braves have blown 10 saves this season as compared to 16 blown saves for the Cardinals.  Any game which comes down to a bullpen matchup would obviously tilt the game in favor of the Braves.  The caveat to this disadvantage for the Cardinals is the fact that a starting pitcher such as Adam Wainwright or Kyle Lohse who have very consistently gotten deep into games this season cuts out much of this bullpen disadvantage.  The Cardinals, although over all have been weak in their bullpen, the end of game combination of Boggs and Motte could be good enough to win this game for the Cardinals.

The bottom line is that any one game baseball series is next to impossible to predict.  Unlike football, baseball is built on the concept that over the course of a full season and an overwhelmingly large sample size, the best teams will show themselves, and in a one game playoff, the best team may not be the one that comes out with a win on one particular night.  Given this disclaimer, it appears that these two teams would want to play this playoff game very differently.  The sooner the Braves could get into the bullpen, the better they would be.  They need to only keep the game close and rely on the strength of their relievers and late inning at bats and hope that this Cardinal team that has made a habit of choking in close games, come through for the other team once again.  The Cardinals, on the other hand will be looking to develop a lead early and ride a hot hand at starting pitcher to the point of needing only a late inning reliever if at all.  It could be an interesting one game series.  I will continue to knock on wood in hopes of getting there.  I am sorry if any of this becomes a jinx, but the excitement of the possibility of more playoff baseball in St. Louis has me far too excited.