And… Here… We… Go…

I know that the Jeff Fisher Rams are an exciting and new phenomenon or so we hope here in the coming months, but let’s be honest, there is no sports team in St. Louis that will ever touch the Cardinals during a pennant race.  After defeating the Cincinnati Reds on Friday night, the Cardinals have allowed themselves to actually enter the talk about a pennant race, but it will be the next 9 games that really show us all how serious this team is about contending.  These games will combine a long road trip without days off with three teams in which the Reds and the Nationals are the best two teams in the National League according to record, and the Pirates are the team that they will have to beat if they want to become a wild card winner. 

The Cardinals, after an extremely disappointing extra inning loss against the Pirates, the Cardinals have come back admirably to take a lead in the National League’s second Wild Card spot, but anything that we need to learn, we will learn over this next week of games.  We will see if this Cardinal offense can hit with consistency like we have always hoped they would.  We will see if the Cardinals rotation can continue to put up solid innings and see how effective that bullpen can be as it rounds into form. 

I have been speaking about the Wild Card Spot, but is there any chance that the Cardinals could actually catch the Cincinnati Reds in the Divisional race?  While it is a dangerous aspect to look at as both teams and the Cardinals in particular are capable of losing to anyone.  The Reds and Cardinals will play 4 more times after today’s game, with the last series of the season being this matchup between the two teams in St. Louis.  While the Cardinals are playing the Pirates and Nationals, the Reds will be playing the D-Backs and Astros to close out the season.  After that the Reds will play the Astros three more times which will equal the number of times the Cardinals play the basement dwelling team from Texas for the rest of the season.  Both teams also have series against the Dodgers, Cubs, and Pirates although the Reds will play the Pirates twice over the rest of the season compared to the Cardinals.  The Reds will also have series with the Phillies, Marlins, and Brewers while the Cardinals will play the San Diego and another series against the Nationals.

With neither team having a large advantage as far as strength of schedule goes, the Division will boil down to what the Cardinals needed last season: a downturn from the Reds at the precise moment that the Cardinals find losing a rare and unwelcomed aberration.  While I would love to believe that this is possible, can we really hope for the stars to align for the second straight season for the Cardinals?  Is it really a possible and likely scenario that they will skate their way into the postseason with as much credit going to the teams who are playing the chased as the Cardinal team doing the chasing?  Luckily for this team though, this season comes equipped with the destiny assisting second Wild Card spot.  I for one will be watching with excitement.  While the Cardinals still have a lot of work to get a chance at another playoff run this season, an actual race for a division title would not be too bad to enjoy with heightened pulses.

What Would it Mean if the Cardinals Get to a Wild Card Game?

Ok, I know I am speaking way too soon.  I have knocked on every piece of wood, kissed every lucky egg (Cool Runnings anyone), and been on a nonstop search for lucky pennies, horseshoes, and four leaf clovers all day so I feel like I can ask this question.  The Cardinals as of August 22^nd  are officially tied for a spot in a National League Wild Card Spot, and now seems to be the time when we can look forward with our fingers crossed and try to figure out what that means.  Ok, enough with the lucky gestures (although I just put on the pair of boxers that I wore for the entire September and October run for the Cardinals last year).  Too far?  Sorry.

The first thing we would need to look at for this scenario, the first of its kind in baseball, is what kind of matchup the Cardinals would have in that single game play off.  As it stands right now, and there is fairly good reason to believe that it would hold true after the Braves fell apart last season down the stretch, the Cardinals would face the Atlanta Braves, and this is most likely a rough matchup for the Cards.  This season, the Cardinals are 1-5 against the Atlanta Braves after being swept at home early in the season. 

While it is impossible to project how the rotations of either team would shape up, when looking at the Braves rotation which currently has 6 pitchers in it, the rotation seems to mirror the Cardinals in many ways.  The rotation is led by Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson who both have 12 wins and both have had injury issues this season.  Other options for this game could be one of the two recent additions to the Braves team in Ben Sheets and Paul Maholm who have both been extremely impressive since being added to the Atlanta Team.  In comparison with the Cardinals rotation which could boast a top three of Wainwright, Lohse, and Garcia if he could come back to his prior levels of performance and with the capable and at times outstanding Lynn, the Cardinals’ rotation could match up with the Braves’ rotation pretty well, especially if Wainwright can be the type of big game pitcher who can put a team on his back like back when he was pitching in the playoffs against the Dodgers in 2009.

Then we look at the differences between the two offenses, and that is where the Cardinals would need to separate themselves from the Braves.  The Cardinals are the best offensive team in the National League, having scored 28 more runs than the Atlanta Braves and are hitting .020 points higher than the Braves.  This is an advantage that would need to make the difference in this potential match up. 

The huge issue that separates these two teams, however, is the differences in the bullpen.  The Braves bullpen is more than a run better this season in ERA, and the Braves have blown 10 saves this season as compared to 16 blown saves for the Cardinals.  Any game which comes down to a bullpen matchup would obviously tilt the game in favor of the Braves.  The caveat to this disadvantage for the Cardinals is the fact that a starting pitcher such as Adam Wainwright or Kyle Lohse who have very consistently gotten deep into games this season cuts out much of this bullpen disadvantage.  The Cardinals, although over all have been weak in their bullpen, the end of game combination of Boggs and Motte could be good enough to win this game for the Cardinals.

The bottom line is that any one game baseball series is next to impossible to predict.  Unlike football, baseball is built on the concept that over the course of a full season and an overwhelmingly large sample size, the best teams will show themselves, and in a one game playoff, the best team may not be the one that comes out with a win on one particular night.  Given this disclaimer, it appears that these two teams would want to play this playoff game very differently.  The sooner the Braves could get into the bullpen, the better they would be.  They need to only keep the game close and rely on the strength of their relievers and late inning at bats and hope that this Cardinal team that has made a habit of choking in close games, come through for the other team once again.  The Cardinals, on the other hand will be looking to develop a lead early and ride a hot hand at starting pitcher to the point of needing only a late inning reliever if at all.  It could be an interesting one game series.  I will continue to knock on wood in hopes of getting there.  I am sorry if any of this becomes a jinx, but the excitement of the possibility of more playoff baseball in St. Louis has me far too excited.

What 19 Innings Taught Us About This Cardinals Team

I forced myself to watch every inning of the 19 inning marathon, and it is impossible to walk out the other side without feeling like this team is destined to be as disappointing as last season was exciting.  Last season was the perfect example of how a team can come together down a stretch run to do something special, but I am afraid that this season will be almost the exact opposite, the team with as much talent as anyone falls apart because the whole is less than the sum of its parts.

It was one thing earlier in the season where the Cardinals were losing because their bullpen needed to be upgraded.  At least that gave the front office something to look into upgrading.  That gave us as fans a place to point a finger and lay blame.  This team now has no place to lay the blame, or I guess the more accurate statement would be to say that there is too many places to point to, too many leaks that need to be plugged.  Against the Pirates, none of these leaks had to do with the Cardinal bullpen.  Yes, I know that eventually they lost the game because Browning gave up three runs at the end of the game, but let us just be honest here, that is not why they lost the game.  If the Cardinals as a team are relying on the rookie left hander who is only there because of Fuentes’ leaving the team and Rzepczynski’s tough year, then they would be all but lost anyway.

The biggest target to point a finger at from this game and something that has become increasingly evident in the last month or so, is the lack of a Cardinal offense which is completely unable to come through enough in the clutch.  They are the perfect example of the old adage that hitting is contagious; unfortunately not hitting is just as contagious.  The Cardinals have made one heck of a show of scoring four runs too many one day only to score one run too few the next day.  So the Cardinals’ all important run differential goes up so that all the stat geeks out there can point to how good the team is, and all the while, the Cardinals ride their feast or famine offense to third place in the National League Central. 

Let’s just look at the past four games the Cardinals have played in which they have lost three of them.  They lost the last game in a series against the Diamondbacks because of a bullpen collapse, or more accurately, a Jason Motte hiccup.  The Cardinals then lost the first game against the Pirates because they could not hit.  After a win, they then lost this game where once again they could not manufacture even one run during extra innings that could have won the game after defensive miscues lost the lead in the first place.  Three different games, three different ways to lose.

And then there is Carlos Beltran.  I do not mean to single him out in this as any sort of reason as to why the team finds itself in this position.  Beltran has been amazing this season, but I wonder if he is being run into the ground much the same way that Furcal was run into the ground during the beginning of this season which has been all too evident as we have watched his batting average drop from the levels of the elite leadoff man to a respectable if not outstanding 8^th hole hitter. 

Now it is Beltran’s turn to run out of gas.  I know that he is getting old, and is under instruction to take it easy on those knees of his, but it looks like he is running as if the right field grass has been replaced by ice, not to mention the first base line when it is his turn to run down it.  Beltran still gets some big hits and even finds his way to a ball in time to throw out a runner or two as he stretches doubles to triples, but it also feels like about every third or fourth game, the Cardinals give up an extra base to a runner because of Beltran’s instructions to avoid hurting himself.  It frightens me by the possibility, and I truly hope that I do not turn out to be right, but I am worried that eventually the Cardinals will lose a game because of Beltran’s balky knees.  And in a season that could end up as close as this one, it will be a tough pill to swallow when that game becomes the difference between a playoff game and finishing in third place.

So Long Tyler, and Good Riddance

My biggest fear last offseason was not the loss of Albert Pujols, although I will admit to more than a small amount of disappointment and sadness when Albert picked the LA Angels and the 11 year love affair I had with the man so suddenly ended.  My biggest fear was that the Cardinals and the front office who had the same kind of love affair with the far less accomplished Tyler Greene would decide that any of the free agent shortstops would be too expensive.  I remember conversations with friends about how the day that the Cardinals did not sign Albert Pujols, they should have had a press conference with two announcements to save face in front of Cardinals’ fans everywhere.  The two things that I wanted them to announce were that they were first going to sign Yadier Molina to a long term deal, making him a Cardinal for the foreseeable future, and the second announcement that I was hoping for was for someone to announce that they were just joking when anyone within the organization was talking about the possibility of Tyler Greene as a starting shortstop.

Now that we have for sure seen the final days of Tyler Greene in St. Louis, I must admit to having mixed feelings.  Maybe I should clarify here though; these mixed feelings have nothing to do with me not wanting Greene to be traded.  While I was somehow impervious to the toolsy charm of Tyler Greene, at least in comparison to whoever is in the Cardinals’ front office who had eyes only for the young shortstop who could run, hit for power, and seemingly anything else on a baseball field.  The only problem was that he does all of these things exactly once a week on average.  My only disappointment in this trade is that they gave away the former first round draft pick for almost nothing, and their stated reason for this trade was to “give Tyer Greene a chance to start over.”

Really?  That is the goal of a trade?  That is the best the Cardinals could get out of the guy who only months ago was being sold to a fan base which had legitimate hopes for a repeat World Series Victory as the starting shortstop?  How is it that the Cardinals scouts and front office were so high on a player that literally no one else in baseball was half as excited about?  Ok, ok.  Enough questions, but really, this seems ridiculous.  At least get a Maikel Cleto type prospect like they got out of Brendan Ryan when they decided to trade him.  At least that would give the team a chance to get lucky with someone who just needed a change of scenery. 

I have to admit, Tyler Greene is not the root of all evil as I at times wanted to make him out to be.  It is not his fault that he could not hit consistently, gets picked off when serving as a pinch runner, and have occasional brain farts in the field defensively.  He is basically just like every other minor leaguer who was not able to make it to his full potential.  The only difference with Tyler Greene is that we have been sold his top prospect worthy talent for years now, and he was given literally every chance and then some to prove that he was worth the investment that the team had made.  I just wish that we as fans could have seen what the front office seemed to, and find a way to avoid these mistakes in the future.  Good luck moving forward, Tyler.  I really mean it, just please do not find your way back into a Cardinal’s uniform.  I just cannot take any more comments about your amazing athleticism or talent.

Is the National League Central the Best Division in the National League?

For years now, the National League Central Division has been touted as one of the weakest in baseball during the off season rankings.  According to the bleacherreport.com preseason power rankings, the division had 3 of the teams projected to be in the bottom 6 in baseball, the Astros, Pirates, and Cubs.  The same power rankings article ranked only two teams in the division in the top half of baseball teams this season with the top ranking as picked to be the 8^th best team in baseball.  Not exactly the cream of the baseball crop, but an interesting thing has happened since these preseason predictions.  The National League Central Division teams, at least three of them, have decided that they no longer feel like losing. 

Unfortunately for the Cardinals, who were the one team picked in the top 10 of these preseason power rankings, and even this ranking was mostly based on the idea that the World Champions have to be ranked at least that high, the division has been anything but a collection of losers and bottom six type teams in baseball.  Before the last hiccup against the Brewers in Milwaukee, the Cincinnati Reds seemed immune to whatever virus causes teams to lose.  The Pittsburg Pirates also hit the same hot streak at the same time, and the Cardinals have put together one of their best stretches of the season only to find themselves falling further behind the pack.  After hearing all about the futility of the National League Central, I am beginning to think that as so often seems to be true, these preseason predictions turned out to be just about as unrealistic as could be possible.  In fact, an argument could be made for the National League Central Division as the best division in the National League.

The Argument For: The National League Central boasts three teams who are 9 games over .500 or more.  In the National League East Division, only two teams are even above .500 and in the West Division, while three teams are over .500 at least, the third team is Arizona has only won one more game than it has lost.  The simple truth of the National League is that there are not very many good teams, and the National League Central may very well get three playoff spots this season with the second wild card team added to the playoff mix this season after last season’s playoffs saw two of the National League Central teams playing in the National League Championship Series.  Between the Brewers and Cardinals last season and the Reds, Pirates, and Cardinals this season, the National League Central has had quite the run of playoff or potential playoff teams over the past two seasons.

The Argument Against:  The National League Central and the National League in general has been experiencing an exodus of talent to the American League.  It could be argued that the top two players in the Central Division over the past 5 years left the division at the same time this last off season.  Albert Pujols and Prince Fiedler both found their ways into greener pastures where the zeros after dollar signs continue on for as far as the eye can see in the American League.  The Central Division has had quite the run for sure, but that is just looking at one half of the teams that play in the division.  At the other end of the division, the National League Central as two of the worst three teams in the National League as based on records.  With uneven schedules weighted more heavily within the division, it is impossible to ignore the reality that the Cardinals, Reds, Pirates, and even Brewers have their records boosted by games against the pathetic Cubs and Astros. 

In all reality, it would be difficult to argue for any National League Division as the best in baseball, but as far as the National League goes, the Central Division is not getting the credit that it deserves for the quality of teams that have made their ways to the top.  Maybe another couple of World Series Teams will finally show that the National League Central is much more than the laughing stock that it has been thought of as over the past few off seasons.  The loss of the Astros to the American League will also only help with the credibility of the division.  Maybe even Theo Epstein could have a hand in turning the Cubs from laughing stock to a competent team again.  Regardless, no argument can be made against the top three teams in the National League Central as being among the Leagues elite.

Is Descalso this Cardinal Team’s Version of Placido Polanco?

Every championship team wins because it has star players.  The Cardinals have won championships in the last two years due to names like Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, Scott Rolen, and Jim Edmonds to name a few.  While these are the types of players who take the headlines, in today’s financial climate where these star players are paid enormous sums of money to stick around as a member of the team, a franchise not named the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox must round out their rosters with valuable and inexpensive players.  The Cardinals have done as good of a job as any other franchise in recent years with the likes of David Freese, Allen Craig, and Skip Schumaker providing them with valuable innings and at bats for less than a star would require.  Another of the players who has recently been given more and more playing time who fits this mold as a valuable replacement even if he is not a sexy name, is Daniel Descalso, and in many ways, this season has shown the Cardinals how valuable he can be as a super sub type player.

Although during last season, Daniel Descalso was given semi regular playing time at third base after David Freese went down with an injury and even after as a defensive replacement, he has been much better served in the role that he has been cast in this season.  Descalso this season has played at every infield position for the Cardinals, and his ability be put in the game at all of these positions makes him the perfect infield sub off the bench.  Recently, Descalso has been getting more playing time than this utility infielder title normally calls for.  While Descalso is appearances at pitcher, catcher, and the entire outfield away from Secret Weapon Jose Oquendo status, he does remind me of another although slightly less old Cardinal, Placido Polanco.

Like Descalso, Polanco came up with the Cardinals as a light hitting utility infielder whose offensive talents were definitely not without question.  He came up as a true second baseman at seemingly the one point in the Cardinal’s team history of the last 12 years where they actually had a second baseman in place who they considered entrenched in Fernando Vina.  Just think of what would have happened if Polanco came up to the Cardinals only a couple years later.  Could he have become the second baseman that the Cardinals keep around for a while?  Although when you really look at it, maybe the super utility asset that he became was even more important than a solid second spot in the order and talented defensive second baseman could have been for the team.  It was enough of a piece to turn around for Scott Rolen at least, so it is difficult to say that the Cardinals could have benefited more from the little guy with the larger than seemed possible head. 

Do I see Descalso becoming a future All-Star whose talents allow the Cardinals to deal him for the type of player that Scott Rolen was in his prime or even to be that solid every day second baseman that Polonco might have been had he come to the Cardinals only two years later?  No.  I worry that Descalso simply does not have the talent for hitting a baseball into the holes that the infielders leave behind that Polanco became famous for.  I do think that Descalso is a solid and even at times great defensive player who can not only play anywhere with the confidence and even at times relief of those on his team but also seem to always do the little things right.  He may not be able to drive the ball with authority like Allen Craig, but he can put together tough at bats and see pitches.  Descalso is the type of winning presence that all good teams need to have coming off their bench as of right now, but in the future, with only a little more experience and ability to hit the ball to the open field, he may be able to be the type of super sub infielder that Polanco once was for this same redbird team.