With enthused clichés about spring and the feeling of optimism running through my mind, it is impossible not to be overjoyed by the opining of Spring Training. When the pitchers and catchers reported to Jupiter, Florida only weeks ago, I found it impossible to not celebrate the highs of last year all over again. I find myself watching highlights of Game 6 of the World Series in perpetuity and dreaming about the possibilities of reliving similar experiences this season with this version of the Cardinals. This is not to say that this current version of the Cardinals does not have its flaws. While so much is the same from last season, even more seems to be different for the 2012 Cardinals. Like it or not, the World Series win was the close of an era in St. Louis. This is not to say that the future does not look bright, just different, and different can seem scary for a fan base that has seen a decade and a half of the same coaching staff and a decade spent with the same, ridiculously consistent best player. With the time rapidly approaching where looking forward is going to be more important than looking back, here are the reasons why the Cardinals will and will not repeat as World Series Champions in 2012.
Why The Cardinals Will Not Repeat.
3. The back end of the rotation. It is easy to say that the Cardinals are set as a starting staff. They have the same five starters this year that they walked into last season hoping they would have. While the reinfusion of Adam Wainwright into the rotation brings with it exciting possibilities, the concept of running Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook to the mound on back to back nights does not inspire all kinds of confidence. While both are experienced and capable major league starters, Westbrook had an ERA over 4.50 last year despite a winning record. Lohse on the other hand, had an impressively productive season in 2012, but watching him in the postseason was to see a pitcher who could fool a lineup the first time through the order before watching his elusive change-up become very hittable. With the possibility of Carpenter and Wainwright not being able to throw as many innings this season as previous seasons, relying on the back end of the rotation could potentially spell danger for the 2012 Cardinals.
2. The loss of the best hitter in baseball over the past 11 years. It is impossible to look at a lineup without Albert Pujols and compare it favorably to a lineup that does not have a machine wearing the number 5 batting in the third spot of the batting order. Albert Pujols almost single handedly won the third game of the World Series, and in a series that went to a seventh game, every game held a heightened sense of importance. For the past 11 seasons, the Cardinals have always had the best player on the field, and now they will have to get by with having multiple good players, but that trump card will no longer belong to the team from St. Louis.
1. Injuries. It is not any spectacular revelation to say that the threat of injuries could bring down a professional sports team. The last time the Cardinals were defending World Series Champs, multiple elbow surgeries for their ace Chris Carpenter spelled doom for the team from opening day, and the possibility for injuries to be the biggest challenge to the 2012 Cardinals is a very real threat. While it is possible to say that any team could have injuries, the Cardinals seem to have a roster that is filled with players who have extensive histories of not remaining healthy through a full season. The just mentioned Carpenter is coming off of a season in which he threw more innings than ever before in his career, Wainwright as well is only a year removed from ligament replacement surgery in his elbow, and then the batters add to the long list of players with injury histories. Lance Berkman and Carlos Beltran, although both had productive years last year, carry with him the risk of a mid-30’s players with extensive knee issues in the past. Similar things could be said for David Freese and Allen Craig, both young players who have a ton of talent, but seem to be unable to remain healthy enough to show this talent over the course of an entire season. Add to this a 34 year old shortstop with declining batting numbers resulting from his injuries in the past years and the potential for a nightmare of an injury riddled season is definitely a frightening one.
Why The Cardinals Will Win It All Again
3. The Bullpen. While the Cardinals are still leaning heavily on young arms in the bullpen, the potential for improvement in this phase of the team became evident as the season went along last year. The group of young Cardinals relievers and older relievers blew 26 saves last season for the Cardinals. To put this number in perspective, the season before the Cardinals had only 10 blown saves. If the Cardinals in 2011 had only had this number of blown saves, they would have set a team record for wins in a season, which would be a far cry from needing a 23-9 record over the final 32 games in order to sneak into the playoffs. An improved bullpen in 2012 could be the perfect remedy for a Cardinals team that was slowed by injuries or a decline in offensive production.
2. Adam Wainwright. The fact that the Cardinals made it to the playoffs without their ace last season was completely improbable. Having the 6 foot 7 workhorse back should be the greatest improvement for the team this season. Although there has already been talk of Wainwright’s innings being limited, there is real reason to hope that these innings, although not the quantity as he produced during his past, the quality will surely make up for it.
1. A deep and balanced lineup. The Cardinals won the World Series last year for two reasons above all else. They had a bullpen that could match up batter by batter and get consistent outs, and they had a lineup that could put up enough runs to make up for the shortcomings of whichever starting pitcher struggled to give the team more than a few innings. Although he enhanced the lineup greatly and came up big more than once, Albert Pujols was not the reason the Cardinals won their 11th title. While having one batter who everyone fears is an amazing luxury, having a lineup with hitters the quality of Molina, Craig, and Freese batting in the 5th, 6th, and 7th spots in the order is devastating. Assuming health, the Cardinals could have legitimate threats to drive in runs scattered throughout the order in a way that should mean a lot of runs.
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